Closing 2024 and Looking Ahead to 2025

Wrapping up 2024

1. Mobile Network Evolution: 5G utilization excels, monetization lags

Five years into its global rollout, 5G monetization remains an elusive goal for most operators. While network utilization has grown and performance metrics like speed and coverage have improved, meaningful financial returns have not. South Korea stands out as a rare exception, where mobile network operators (MNOs) have seen heavy investment in customer propositions such as content bundling and differentiated services, bringing in new revenue streams. However, this success remains the exception, not the rule.

In most markets, the industry’s focus has largely been on improving network efficiency—deploying mid-band spectrum (3.5GHz), expanding coverage, and lowering costs through spectrum refarming. Yet, these efforts address the easier (although still hard) task of building better networks. The more difficult challenge—translating 5G’s advanced capabilities into significant new tangible revenue streams—remains out of reach for many. A major obstacle lies in the continued reliance on non-standalone (NSA) networks, which tether 5G  radios to 4G cores, preventing “true 5G” capabilities like massive IoT, ultra-low latency, and network slicing from reaching their full potential and fulfilling the marketing hype.

While mid-band spectrum has been instrumental in delivering incremental speed gains, particularly in markets like South Korea and Brazil, it is no cure-all. Operators face a trade-off: mid-band provides strong speed and capacity benefits but struggles with in-building coverage, whereas low-band spectrum (sub-1GHz) solves for coverage but at the cost of speeds. Efforts to repurpose legacy 2G/3G spectrum for 4G and 5G have created cost efficiencies for operators but have also introduced new challenges, such as voice quality issues during the transition to VoLTE (Voice over LTE) and VoNR (Voice over New Radio), device compatibility problems, and coverage disparities in rural areas.

Ultimately, within this balancing act, the industry must pivot from a laser focus on network achievements and become more inclusive, pushing to drive product innovation and better customer experiences. Without compelling 5G use cases and monetization strategies, 5G risks being remembered as an “odd G”—a technical success that delivered utilization gains but failed to generate meaningful financial outcomes. Looking ahead, early steps toward more open networks, accessed via APIs for enterprise services, offer some hope, but operators must move quickly to prove 5G’s commercial value before the next generation of connectivity inevitably arrives.

For more insight, read the 5G Global Awards report and spectrum blog 

2. Fixed Wireless Access (FWA): remains the only material 5G use case

Amid the broader struggles to monetize 5G, Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) has emerged as a bright star for operators. By leveraging existing mobile infrastructure and spectral assets, FWA provides a cost-effective broadband solution in markets where the high capital expenditures (CapEx) of fixed broadband deployment remain prohibitive.

In the United States, FWA absorbed much of the subscriber growth in 2024. We saw Verizon surpass its target of 4 million FWA subscribers 15 months ahead of schedule, while T-Mobile expanded its presence across suburban and rural markets, cementing FWA as a key broadband alternative. Elsewhere, operators like Airtel and Jio in India integrated FWA into their portfolios, offering broadband connectivity in areas with limited fiber penetration. For example, Jio AirFiber reported an impressive increase from 0.6 million connections in December 2023 to 2.8 million by September 2024. Similarly, FWA proved its value in the Philippines by overcoming geographical challenges, offering flexible deployments and lower costs than fiber rollouts.

For operators, FWA provides a compelling business case. It leverages mobile retail channels and existing subscriber bases while circumventing the heavy costs associated with widespread fiber infrastructure. While FWA cannot match fiber’s performance, it delivers “good enough” connectivity to meet the broadband needs of many households, particularly those in underserved or rural areas.

From a consumer perspective, FWA’s plug-and-play model has been a game-changer. The ease of self-installation—eliminating the need for technician visits—combined with competitive pricing have driven high Net Promoter Scores (NPS) for providers like Verizon and T-Mobile. Operators are bundling FWA with mobile services to enhance its value proposition, combining convenience and affordability for consumers.

Looking ahead, it will be interesting to see if the successful commercialization of FWA will continue to test mobile networks as demand and traffic grow. Whether this impacts the overall mobile network experience remains to be seen. 

Watch our webinar: 5G FWA: Can the US Model Unlock Global Broadband Success?

3. Fiber connectivity: delivering on its promise but facing new challenges

Unlike 5G, fiber connectivity has delivered on its promises, offering customers gigabit speeds alongside reliable and consistent connectivity. The industry consensus has shifted decisively toward fiber-first strategies as operators abandon costly bets based on older cable technologies —Vodafone Germany is a case in point.

While operators are aligned on fiber as the foundation for broadband connectivity, they face significant challenges in costs and value propositions. The outdated “build it and they will come” approach leaves operators grappling with two critical questions: Who to build for? and How to price it?

Innovative models are helping operators navigate fiber migration without overbuilding:

• Joint ventures. Zegona’s partnerships in Spain allow cable operators to migrate to fiber while avoiding costly overbuild scenarios.

• Wholesale networks. The UK’s move toward a second wholesale fixed broadband network fosters greater competition and improved user experiences. 
• Flexible pricing. Providers have introduced prepaid fiber plans to address affordability challenges in emerging markets like the Philippines. These models remove financial barriers for consumers while enabling broader adoption in underserved areas.

The fiber story is no longer about just deployment—it’s about proposition. To stand out and win customers, operators must differentiate themselves beyond offering the broadband pipe. Success will depend on their ability to integrate advanced in-home solutions, such as optimized Wi-Fi, while exploring new pricing models and partnerships that make fiber services more compelling and accessible. Integrated mesh networks are now table stakes, not differentiators. As Wi-Fi coverage becomes critical to customer satisfaction, operators must modernize in-home experiences to unlock fiber’s full potential. Achieving this will likely require operators to strengthen or build their partnerships with the vendors from whom they primarily source in-home network equipment. Without seamless in-home performance, customers cannot fully realize the value of their fiber connections which will lead to poor experiences. Our analysis in Spain highlighted how important Wi-Fi is to the fixed broadband experience.

4. Market dynamics: consolidation gains momentum, regulation plays catch-up

The telecommunications industry rarely sees a year without regulatory changes or major mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and 2024 was no exception. This year, however, we have seen a shift in attitude: regulators are beginning to recognize operators’ concerns about the sustainability of heavy network investments without allowing for market consolidation.

Operators have long argued that in-market consolidation is necessary to unlock capital for substantial network investments. Recent high-profile deals, such as Vodafone and Three's UK merger, XL Axiata and Smartfren's consolidation in Indonesia, and Hutch and TIM's restructuring, indicate that these arguments are increasingly resonating with regulators. However, such mergers often come with regulatory conditions to ensure that investment follows consolidation. For example, the Vodafone-Three UK merger was approved with the stipulation of a continued £11 billion investment in 5G network development.

Outside of M&A, the Digital Markets Act (DMA) represented an important shift in Europe,  seeking to balance the power held by dominant digital “gatekeepers” like Meta, Google, and Apple. While designed to promote fair competition, the DMA introduces compliance complexities for operators and forces them to reassess their relationships with tech giants. The Draghi Report further highlighted Europe’s slow progress in spectrum harmonization and cross-market consolidation, emphasizing the need for a more unified strategy to maintain digital leadership.

At the same time, the European Commission is reviewing critical areas, including 5G network performance, international roaming, and the 2025 review of the Electronic Communications Code, which will focus on improving quality of service (QoS). Across the Atlantic, there is potential for a sea-change in connectivity regulation, as the Trump Administration casts a skeptical eye towards the slow-moving $42 billion BEAD program intended to fund broadband build-out in rural areas, especially with Starlink founder Elon Musk taking a prominent role in the new president’s inner circle.

Globally, regulators continue to push forward with 5G spectrum licensing while some markets are already piloting 6G research. While policies like the DMA and a growing acceptance of consolidation show progress, the slow pace of regulatory change remains a bottleneck in an industry desperately seeking clarity, scale, and the ability to innovate.

Read the blog: Vodafone - Three Merger: Now It's Approved, What Does it Mean for Consumers? 

5. Bridging the digital divide

The industry has long spoken about bridging the digital divide, framing connectivity as a fundamental human right. For individuals and communities, a lack of broadband coverage—whether mobile or fixed—creates barriers to education, healthcare, employment, and social participation. While this challenge is often associated with developing countries, it is far broader. Even in developed markets like the UK, significant gaps persist. Anyone living in London can attest to areas where connectivity remains unreliable, or non-existent, underscoring the need for reliable and consistent coverage even in urban hubs.

The ever-connected nature of modern life makes consistent and reliable broadband a necessity. Yet, our research shows significant disparities persist between urban and rural areas, where infrastructure, broadband tiers, and equipment quality often differ. Furthermore, short-term disruptions caused by wars and natural disasters further exacerbate these divides. To address this, we’ve seen operators increasingly partner with satellite providers to bring connectivity to remote, super-rural, and disrupted regions.

In the quest for universal connectivity, higher speeds are no longer enough—reliability and consistency are now the benchmarks of a meaningful broadband experience. Opensignal continues to investigate what truly defines reliable connectivity across both mobile and fixed networks. By linking outages and disruptions to real-world user experiences, we highlight the critical role consistency plays in daily life. Speed may grab headlines, but it only tells part of the story; usability and resilience are equally important measures that enable operators to deliver tangible improvements to customer experience.

While programs like the Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP) in the U.S. made significant progress in 2024, the funding expiration in May raises questions about long-term sustainability. Without renewed commitments from governments and industry, these gains risk being undone. Ensuring universal access to reliable broadband remains a collective challenge, requiring innovative solutions, regulatory support, and industry collaboration.

Watch our webinar:  Enhancing broadband reliability across urban and rural areas

Looking Ahead: What Will Matter in 2025 and Beyond?

As we peer into the crystal ball for the telco industry's future in 2025 and beyond, several key themes emerge that will shape the next phase of network evolution and consumer experience. 2025 will force operators to address some uncomfortable realities. 5G monetization remains stalled, satellite connectivity will struggle to meet lofty expectations, and AI risks being more trouble than it’s worth. 

1. Standalone 5G: not ready for primetime

The transition to Standalone 5G (5G SA) will remain slow, and operators will struggle to justify the high deployment costs without clear, immediate revenue opportunities. Enterprise use cases like ultra-low latency applications and network slicing will remain niche, constrained by limited demand, high implementation complexity, and a lack of compelling, scalable business cases.

Operators may talk up 5G Advanced, but it will be more of the same—incremental upgrades and cost saving rather than groundbreaking transformation. The industry’s reliance on the traditional 10-year upgrade cycle will increasingly feel outdated as user expectations and technological advancements move faster. Operators need to understand and address the challenges of 5G before being seduced by vendors looking to push 6G technologies.

2. Satellite connectivity: a niche solution, not a silver bullet

Despite significant buzz, satellite connectivity will remain a niche solution in 2025. Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) players like Starlink and OneWeb will expand satellite broadband coverage into underserved regions like India, where it will compete with FWA for rural connectivity. 

However, Non-Terrestrial Networks (NTNs), particularly satellite direct-to-device (D2D) services, will face economic and technical hurdles. D2D connectivity—such as T-Mobile’s partnership with Starlink—will begin with low-speed texting in 2025, followed by voice and data. Yet, limited capacity due to small smartphone antennas will make D2D unsuitable for broadband. Providers like AST SpaceMobile and Verizon aim to bridge coverage gaps, but scalability, high costs, and inconsistent performance will restrict D2D to niche applications like emergency communications and remote IoT.

Ultimately, satellite networks will complement terrestrial infrastructure rather than replace it. While partnerships with satellite providers offer operators some differentiation, they fall short of being the silver bullet to eliminate rural connectivity gaps.

3. Convergence: survival, not innovation

Fixed-Mobile Convergence (FMC) will dominate 2025 financial calls as operators scramble to protect their customer base and grow ARPU. In Europe, convergence has become a defensive strategy—Orange’s relentless focus on “churn, churn, churn” is a case in point. In the U.S., Charter and Comcast’s success in bundling mobile and broadband services, and Verizon’s recently announced acquisition of fiber-first telco Frontier, proves that convergence is no longer optional—it’s essential.  

In emerging markets, where broadband remains a fast-growing market, FMC is often as much about preventing mobile ARPU leakage to WiFi offload as it is about customer retention. Rapid deployment of broadband allows emerging market operators to market converged bundles to the most desirable consumers in these markets – i.e., middle-class and upper-class households that can afford broadband, and will be more inclined to choose postpaid mobile plans. 

4. Telecom evolution - Artificial Intelligence (AI) will be a bigger source of pain than gain while cloud migration accelerates

AI will continue to be a double-edged sword for telcos in 2025. While it promises to revolutionize networks through automation and enhance customer experiences with personalization, the reality will fall short. Practical challenges such as fragmented data, poor strategy execution, and a persistent shortage of AI talent will undermine the pace of progress. For most operators, Deutsche Telekom’s vision of near-zero human intervention networks will remain aspirational rather than achievable.

On the customer front, AI’s promise of personalization will deliver small, incremental wins—mainly focused on upselling and churn management. Operators like Vodafone and Elisa have shown glimpses of success, but scaling these solutions to drive meaningful ARPU growth will prove far more complex and elusive.

At the same time, telcos will press ahead with cloud migration to improve scalability, flexibility, and cost-efficiency. The adoption of cloud-native architectures—enabled by virtualization, containerization, and microservices—will provide a foundation for AI’s long-term potential. However, for many operators in 2025, AI risks becoming a costly experiment with limited short-term returns, overshadowing its transformational promise. Operators will also need to remain wary of hyperscalers offering cloud-native solutions, consolidated data platforms, and ‘AI everything’ without first having seen proof of scalability at ‘telco scale.’

5. Delayering: Telcos’ next big transformation?

The traditional vertically integrated telco model, where telecom operators own and control the entire value chain—from network infrastructure to service delivery—has been the dominant framework for decades. However, this model is increasingly facing scrutiny in some markets due to a variety of challenges and shifting market dynamics. Key drivers include market saturation, capital intensity, regulatory challenges, and the rise of open and wholesale networks. Following in the footsteps of TowerCos and FiberCos, operators might look more seriously at splitting their businesses into infrastructure-focused NetCos and service-driven ServCos. This delayering could, in theory, unlock greater efficiency, allow NetCos to focus on long-term CapEx priorities, and free up ServCos to deliver innovative digital services.

However, as we all know, a change of this nature is anything but simple, with a fundamental shift in how connectivity is provided being required. Although familiar to the industry (the BT and Openreach separation in 2017, for example), the technical challenges remain huge today. But the real challenges will be cultural. Telcos that succeed in separating their businesses will need to redefine what it means to be customer-centric, creating agile, competitive service providers. Those who hesitate will risk being stuck in an outdated model—unable to compete with faster, leaner players shaking up the market. 

All told, these trends provide a pragmatic look at the telco industry’s immediate challenges and opportunities as operators navigate the intersection of network performance, enterprise innovation, and new commercial models.

At Opensignal, we are dedicated to delivering actionable insights that empower stakeholders to optimize networks and enhance user experiences. Join us at MWC 2025 in Hall 2, Booth 2B20, to explore our latest findings and discover how we can support your goals. Book a meeting here.