From spectrum auctions to user experience: Canada’s 5G progress

This Opensignal analysis — a follow-up to our report published during Canada’s 3.8GHz spectrum auction — revisits the 5G landscape in Canada following the spectrum tender. Compared to other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) members, Canada’s 5G user experience falls short. We examine the average bandwidth of 5G connections and the proportion of readings on higher (3-5GHz) bands.This offers insights into how Canada’s 5G experience compares to its peers, and what can be done to close the 5G experience gap.

Key Findings:

• The average bandwidth per 5G connection has increased in Canada. Since the spectrum auction last year, it has risen by 4MHz, to 51.1MHz.
• Despite improving slightly, Canada’s average 5G download speeds are still comparatively poor. Canada’s high 4G speeds and low 5G speeds result in a 5G to 4G uplift of 2.7 times, lower than most OECD countries.  
• 33% of Canada’s 5G readings are on 3-5GHz spectrum blocks. This increase of five percentage points from the previous year is a small step in the right direction, and will increase further upon the deployment of 3.8GHz spectrum.
• 5G connections are slowly shifting to using higher bandwidths. A higher proportion of 5G readings use over 100MHz of spectrum — up 0.7 percentage points to 2.5%. Similarly, the 50-100MHz bracket has risen — up 3.4 percentage points to 44.6%.
• Among similar OECD markets, Canada was late to deliver 3.5GHz spectrum and allocated less. With 3.8GHz spectrum now allocated to the national operators, Canada can hopefully close the 5G performance gap.

As our previous analysis shows, spectrum availability plays a key role in the deployment of 5G. Higher bands provide faster data transfer rates and increased capacity, unlocking the benefits of the technology and enhancing user experience. In November 2023, Canada held its 3.8GHz spectrum auction, the third major auction to allocate spectrum for 5G in the country, more than two years after allocating the mid-band 5G spectrum. However, delays in deployment — operators must wait until March 2025 to deploy this spectrum in urban areas, and 2027 for rural areas — have left users waiting to see the benefits of these allocations materialise. Canada's reliance on lower-frequency 5G spectrum bands has caused its 5G experience to fall behind that of other OECD countries.

In the previous analysis, Opensignal measured Canada’s performance before the latest spectrum auction. One year on, despite the newly allocated spectrum not yet being deployed, Canada’s average 5G spectrum capacity has seen modest improvement. This progress likely stems from infrastructure upgrades, wider deployment of 3.5GHz spectrum and increased user adoption of 5G compatible devices. 

Canada’s average spectrum bandwidth per 5G connection has risen from 47.1MHz to 51.1MHz, accompanied by a 5.1Mbps increase in 5G Download Speed. While this is above the mean yearly increase seen in the analyzed markets, 3.1MHz, Canada’s score remains below the OECD average, as does its 5G Download Speed.

Other markets with recent spectrum auctions, such as the Netherlands and Poland — where 100MHz blocks were assigned to each operator — saw significant increases in score, over 11MHz each. An improvement in average 5G spectrum bandwidth of a similar magnitude, driven by the deployment of 3.8GHz spectrum, would boost 5G speeds in the country and position Canada as a strong competitor among its OECD peers.

Due to Canada’s average 5G download speeds increasing slightly and the decrease of average 4G download speeds, the uplift between the 4G and 5G speeds has increased to 2.7 times. This small shift hasn't impacted its position in the rankings, as it still ranks third from last. The modest uplift is attributed to Canada’s high 4G download speeds and comparatively low 5G download speeds. However, since last year, a few markets have surpassed Canada in 4G download speed, causing it to drop from 5th to 9th in that category.

With the conclusion of Canada’s third major auction of 5G spectrum in November 2023, more bandwidth above 3GHz will be available for user connections. However, with a transition deadline of March 2025 preventing deployment in urban areas, users have yet to benefit from these allocations. Users’ 5G readings a year prior were mostly on spectrum blocks between 1-3GHz, with over 50% of readings being on the AWS (n66) band (1700/2100MHz). This has now shifted slightly, with almost a third of readings now being over 3GHz and 47.5% being on the AWS band. While this is a step in the right direction, Canada still scores lower than many of its OECD peers. 

Poland, which concluded its spectrum auction at a similar time to Canada, and with each operator allocated one of four 100MHz blocks, jumped up to 43.2%. Poland now outpaces Canada for 5G Download Speed despite previously scoring lowest out of the analyzed markets. To prevent Canada from falling behind its peers, deployment of its 3.8GHz spectrum is crucial.

As it stands, the proportion of 5G readings using 100MHz of spectrum per connection has increased, up to 2.5%, a fairly large relative increase. Similarly, the 50-100MHz bracket has also risen, up 3.4 percentage points to 44.6%, with the proportion of readings using over 50MHz of spectrum nearing a majority. This trend will likely increase with the deployment of 3.8GHz spectrum, but would be bolstered by greater spectrum allocation.

When compared to similar OECD markets, Canada was both late in assigning spectrum above 3GHz and auctioned less. The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) minimum technical requirement to meet original 5G objectives is an allocation of 100MHz of spectrum in the mid-band. Canada’s 3.5GHz auction in 2021 offered 200MHz of spectrum. However, the country’s three major operators — Bell, Telus, and Rogers — could only divide 150MHz among themselves, placing them at a disadvantage compared to most international peers and well below the global average at the time.

With Canada’s 3.8GHz spectrum not scheduled for deployment in urban areas until 2025, the full adoption of the n78 band has been slow, adversely affecting the country’s 5G experience. However, compared to a year prior, spectrum availability in higher bands has improved, and will likely improve further with 3.8GHz spectrum rolled out in urban areas. Moreover, the government policies allowing spectrum transfers between operators within the 3.5GHz and 3.8GHz bands provide an opportunity for operators to consolidate contiguous spectrum, thus enhancing efficiency and performance.

This positions Canada better than ever to close the 5G performance gap with its OECD peers. However, maintaining this progress requires strategic foresight, such as taking a proactive stance regarding future developments — for instance, the deployment of the 3.1-3.45GHz band being discussed in the U.S. — to ensure Canada stays competitive on a global stage.

To learn about Canada’s 5G user experience at an operator level, please read our most recent mobile network experience report. And why not stay up-to-date with all the Opensignal insights and articles by signing up to our newsletter?

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