Rakuten Mobile has accelerated new subscriber wins since the beginning of 2024 due to 5G network improvements

Ben Ives, Robert Wyrzykowski

Following on the fireside chat Opensignal participated in during the recent Telecoms World Asia event in November 2024, we are now publishing an insight on how focusing on the enhancement of mobile network performance can lead to improving the market performance of a mobile operator. In this case, Rakuten Mobile is a great example of a mobile operator that improved the consistency of its services while also reaching the milestone of 8 million subscribers on its network — winning from both MNOs, their sub-brands, and standalone MVNOs in the Japanese market.

Key Findings:

• Rakuten Mobile’s Consistent Quality improved significantly in 2023. Due to its network investments and enhancements, its Consistent Quality score is now above standalone MVNOs and MNOs sub-brands (also known as flanker brands).
• Rakuten Mobile is winning more subscribers. Compared to 2022 and 2023, Rakuten Mobile’s win share has grown from 10.6% to 18% in 2024 compared to 2023.
• In 2024, a larger share of Rakuten Mobile switching wins is coming from MVNOs and MNO sub-brands than in prior years. On a year-on-year basis, Rakuten Mobile is increasing its ratio of the number of new subscribers on its network compared to the number of previous customers who moved to other operators.

Since its launch in 2020, Rakuten Mobile has made significant progress in delivering a competitive network experience. When we analyzed its performance in December 2020, Rakuten Mobile users spent just 48.3% of their time on the operator’s own Open Radio Access Network (O-RAN). In a follow-up report, we showed that this percentage increased to 94.1% in Q2 2023. Network enhancements have been a priority for Rakuten Mobile and these have improved our users’ 5G experience. 

These developments yielded positive results in Opensignal Mobile Network Experience reports for Rakuten Mobile when it comes to 5G speeds. In the report published in April 2024, Rakuten Mobile won the 5G Download Speed award outright — and it repeated this feat in our latest report, published in October 2024. Rakuten Mobile is also one of the 5G Global Rising Stars for 5G Availability in Opensignal’s latest 5G Global Mobile Network Experience Awards report. The operator comes first for the most improved 5G Availability metric in relative terms in the large land mass group category, with a stunning year-on-year increase of 271.3%, This means, our 5G users spend 3.7 times more connected to 5G services on Rakuten Mobile’s network in the first half of 2024 compared to the first half of 2023, compared to what they did a year prior.  

Improved mobile experience is one of the key factors that has driven subscriber growth for Rakuten Mobile. In October 2024, the operator announced that its customer base had risen to over eight million subscribers. In this analysis, we will reflect on Rakuten Mobile’s journey and how it has achieved this success.

In our previous analysis of Rakuten Mobile’s performance, Opensignal data showed major improvements in Rakuten Mobile’s scores across multiple metrics — including speeds, latency, or packet loss, which are used to calculate Consistent Quality. This metric measures if the network is sufficient to support common mobile application requirements at a level that is ‘good enough’ for users to maintain (or complete) various typical tasks on their devices. 

Rakuten Mobile’s Consistent Quality score increased sharply between Q1 2023 and Q3 2023 — from 67.6% to 83.4% — following significant network enhancements. Our users on Rakuten Mobile enjoy more consistent quality of mobile services than their peers on MNO sub-brand or standalone MVNOs. 

The boost in Consistent Quality scores happened just before Rakuten Mobile’s jump in Win Share performance at the beginning of 2024. In 2023, Rakuten Mobile accounted for just 10.6% of total mobile switching wins, while in 2024 so far, that share jumped to 18% of total switching wins. Win share reflects the percentage of competitive switching gross adds in the market won by the operator — i.e., how many switchers on the market have been attracted by the operator. 

Rakuten Mobile reported more than eight million subscriptions in its latest quarterly report. Improved mobile network experience is one of the key factors attracting customers to switch to this network. However, strong subscriber acquisition through the Rakuten Ecosystem — the company’s collection of services that are connected by a loyalty program and membership system — has also been one of the main drivers for this growth. Other factors include: B2C customer acquisition efforts, along with contributions from discount programs (e.g. the Saikyo Senior Program). Rakuten Mobile gained a lot of new subscribers due to spring peak sales in Q1 2024 and strong acquisitions of contracts through referral campaigns and the Rakuten Ecosystem in Q2 2024.

Our subscriber analytics data shows that this increase in win share for Rakuten Mobile comes from all competitor segments in the market. Opensignal has analysed the win composition for Rakuten Mobile — which reflects the percentage share of total new subscribers acquired by the operator that came from other competing operators.

Initially, more than half of Rakuten Mobile’s wins were switchers coming from Japan’s MNOs, with a smaller share from MVNOs and sub-brands. Rakuten Mobile’s disruptive pricing was, at one point, a differentiating factor in the market, but the other MNOs have since released new plans that offer similar levels of value. As Rakuten Mobile’s win share grows, partially driven by its step up in Consistent Quality and partially by its new offers it is winning more from all operator types. However, sub-brands and MVNOs are making up a growing portion of Rakuten Mobile’s total wins, with switchers from the two categories accounting for more than half of its wins in recent months.

Compared to 2022 and 2023, Rakuten Mobile wins switchers from MNOs, MNO sub-brands, and standalone MVNOs at a higher rate than in previous years. The operator’s ratios of new subscribers to users who switched to their competition — known as Opensignal’s Wins Per Loss (WPL) metric — sit at 3.3 for MNOs, 2.3 for MNO sub-brands, and 2.5 for MVNOs. These figures mean that, for example, for every switcher Rakuten Mobile loses to other Japanese MNOs (au, NTT docomo, or SoftBank), it gains 3.3 new customers who choose to migrate to Rakuten Mobile from other Japanese MNOs. These trends align with Rakuten Mobile’s own reporting, as the operator’s internal churn metrics have been improving. 

The value of Wins Per Loss below one would mean an operator would lose customers at a higher rate to another operator or group of operators than it is gaining from them. This was the case for Rakuten Mobile, where the operator was losing churners to MNO sub-brands and MVNOs faster than gaining from them back in 2022 However, Rakuten Mobile has improved its Win Per Loss scores against both MVNOs and sub-brands since then, bringing them up to 2.5 and 2.3, respectively.

 This analysis shows how the improved mobile network experience benefits Rakuten Mobile’s current subscribers and attracts switchers from its competitors. Rakuten Mobile, which has already made remarkable progress in terms of 5G signal availability — which resulted in the Opensignal 5G Global Rising Star recognition — has further plans for network enhancement. This includes expanding 5G network coverage in the Kanto region, improving 5G speeds and stability through software upgrades, and developing shared base stations for subways, railway lines, railway tunnels, and underground shopping centers. In late June 2024, Rakuten Mobile launched its own commercial services in the 700MHz "Platinum Band” to improve coverage and the indoor experience in high-rises in urban areas.

Opensignal has the insights to help describe the state of competition between operators in a number of markets. If you are interested in learning more about our Subscriber Analytics capabilities, please contact us.