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The Philippines’ broadband market faces a shake-up as fixed wireless 5G surges

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In recent years, the Philippines has faced challenges in expanding the number of broadband subscribers, hindered by its complex archipelagic geography, which makes fiber infrastructure deployment costly and slow. While Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) was initially more prominent, fiber had gained significant momentum, offering faster speeds and greater reliability. However, the dynamics have shifted as 5G-based FWA offers an interesting alternative for consumers, a trend explored in our latest Philippines Fixed Broadband Experience Report. In the Philippines, broadband availability is low and the cost is high. FWA, particularly 5G-based services, offers greater flexibility and lower deployment costs. This allows companies to reach more remote areas that are difficult to serve with fiber.

Key findings:

  • Competition heats up: Established players PLDT and Globe face growing pressure as consumers increasingly opt for alternative providers when switching broadband services.
  • 5G FWA offers an interesting alternative for consumers: Smart and DITO are winning more broadband switchers with affordable and easily deployable 5G FWA solutions.
  • Prepaid fiber emerges: To lower barriers to entry, fiber providers are introducing prepaid offerings. Converge and Globe are seeing positive momentum, with Converge capturing more wins and Globe gaining traction through promotional offers.

 

In the Philippines, FWA providers have been gaining customers

 

 

Figure 1: 

Broadband Win Share by technology type in the Philippines: the percentage of competitive switching gross adds that are won by a service provider

Broadband Loss Share by technology type in the Philippines: the percentage of competitive switching gross losses that are lost by a service provider

 (This is not a complete view of all providers who serve either fixed wired or fixed wireless but a view of the top providers of each technology. Fixed wired includes PLDT, Converge, and Sky Cable. Fixed Wireless Access includes Smart and DITO)

 

Given the country’s low broadband adoption, the Philippine government has launched the National Broadband Plan. This initiative aims to ensure that all Filipinos have access to broadband by investing in infrastructure, implementing policy reforms, and stimulating market demand.

 

FWA was the leading broadband technology in the Philippines, with an estimated 4.3 million users  at its peak according to GSMA, but fiber broadband gained share due to the inferior quality of early-generation FWA. However, advancements in 5G technology have significantly enhanced FWA performance. As a result, FWA providers, like Smart, are now able to use price to compete more effectively with fiber and satellite, while also benefiting from easier deployment compared to fiber.

 

PLDT’s and Globe's market dominance wanes as competition intensifies

Figure 2:

Win share: the percentage of competitive switching gross adds that are won by a service provider

Loss share: the percentage of competitive switching gross losses that are lost by a service provider

 

PLDT, the incumbent broadband provider in the Philippines and Globe initially benefited significantly from fiber's popularity, have seen their combined win share decline by 19% since its peak in the third quarter of 2022. Conversely, Smart and DITO have experienced a 45% increase in their win share over the same period, indicating a growing preference for FWA options.

 

The prepaid fiber counteroffensive

Figure 3: 

Broadband Wins Per Loss by fixed wired provider in the Philippines: Switching gross adds / switching gross losses

 

To lower the barriers to entry, major fiber providers are introducing prepaid fiber offerings. Converge launched its prepaid fiber product in early 2023 and over the next year increased its Wins per Loss (WPL) by 36%. Its strong performance led other fiber providers to mimic its strategy. PLDT responded by launching its own prepaid fiber service in May 2024. This move helped PLDT achieve its first quarter-over-quarter increase in wins per loss since 3Q23. Still, PLDT's WPL has remained below the breakeven point of 1.0 since early 2023. 

 

Globe launched GFiber Prepaid in 2023, but didn’t see switching momentum until 2024 when it launched aggressive promotional campaigns tied to its prepaid fiber. To enhance its appeal to prepaid users, Globe offers an innovative value proposition: while total data usage is capped, subscribers can enjoy unlimited access to a curated selection of popular content platforms, including TikTok, video streaming services, e-commerce sites, and gaming platforms. This strategy has proven effective in driving subscriber growth, as Globe emphasizes the benefit of unlimited usage on these platforms. As a result, Globe's WPL, which had sharply declined since January 2023, has climbed back toward the 1.0 threshold.

 

With Converge, PLDT, and Globe now offering prepaid fiber, the market's competitive landscape has intensified, with performance increasingly tied to the success of these affordable broadband solutions.

 

Internal upgrades from Smart to PLDT slow as FWA quality improves

Figure 4: 

PLDT’s Broadband Win Share of Smart’s Losses in the Philippines: the percentage share of total gross losses from Smart acquired by PLDT

PLDT’s Win Composition in the Philippines: the percentage share of total gross adds acquired by PLDT that switched from each competing provider

 

Smart, PLDT's mobile arm offering FWA services, is seeing significant changes in customer trends. PLDT is now only capturing 15-23% of Smart's losses, compared to 30-39% in 2023. This shift highlights the growing competitiveness of 5G-based FWA services, as customers are increasingly staying with Smart rather than switching to PLDT's wired broadband options.

 

Fiber providers have dominated the broadband switching market but due to increasing competition, their win share has declined. In response, they are offering cheaper alternatives with their prepaid fiber products. Prepaid fiber offers have started to shift the market as these offers (like Converge's and Globe's prepaid fiber) are resonating well with broadband consumers.

 

Opensignal has the insights to help describe the state of competition between operators in a number of markets. If you are interested in learning more about our Subscriber Analytics capabilities, please contact us.